A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an highly polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in academia but hardly any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the basics. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two articles that seek impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates range over national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a incompetent official who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has got valuable insights to gain from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
